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November 4, 2006
Update General Situation
Election Theory for Constituent Assembly in Nepal
1. Update on General Situation
Maoists extend ceasefire
Stating that the ongoing talks with the seven-party alliance (SPA) government were
making headway, CPN-Maoist on 29 October extended the ceasefire by another three
months. Maoist Chairman Prachanda said that the truce was extended in the wake of
positive talks with the government.
The Maoists had extended the unilateral ceasefire announced in April by three months
on July 28.
FNCCI organised general strike
Defying the court order not to organise the general strike on 17 October the Federation
of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industries (FNCCI) organised the general strike
in order to press the government to fulfil their five-point demand that include
providing peace and security and ending extortion. The FNCCI said its strike was
against the Maoists' atrocities. The strike had a partial effect in the general
public life.
Govt refutes disappearance of 49 from Bhairav Nath battaliaon
The government has said the report by the Office of the High Commission for Human
Right (OHCHR) in Nepal about the disappearance of at least 49 detainees from Bhairav
Nath battalion is incorrect.
Nepali Army (NA) in its latest report refuted the OHCHR (UN Office of the High Commissioner
for Human Rights) claim that 49 alleged Maoists were disappeared from Bhairabnath
Battalion in 2003. But the UN body dismissed the report saying it was insufficient.
Party to take up arms in king's support
The Nepal Janatantrik Party, which was formed on May 24, 2006, has said it will
launch an armed struggle in support of the king from the Far West part of Nepal
. The party stated that a 'sabotage programme' will be launched from mid-December
to mid-February in support of the King. The party claimed that all others except
the seven political parties and Maoists are being treated badly. And the armed struggle
is, therefore, declared to show their disagreement with the current discriminatory
political activities, the party stated.
King misses High Level Probe Commission deadline
King Gyanendra on 18 October missed the deadline given to him by the High Level
Probe Commission (HLPC) to reply to questions regarding his alleged role in repression
and misuse of state coffers during his direct rule. The king was supposed to respond
to the HLPC by 18 October, the final day of the one-week deadline. The commission
had sent a questionnaire to the king last Wednesday.
Maoists, JTMM cadres clash in eastern Nepal
Maoists and the People's Terai Liberation Front (PTLF), a faction group of Maoists
had a clash with each other on 18 October in eastern Nepal.
Maoists claimed two cadres of PTLF were killed in the clash. However, the PTLF said
five Maoists were injured in the clash while there were no casualties on their side.
New panel to probe king's properties
As the Parliamentary National Resources Committee couldn't find the exact land and
properties owned by King Gyanendra, it decided to form a separate high-level committee
to investigate the matter on October 27.
The committee failed to receive information from 32 districts on the king's land
and properties. The committee has already received details from 43 districts where
nearly 60,000 Ropani of land is in the name of the king and royal family members.
Confidence over arms management growing, peace talks towards Conclusion
Media have reported that the government and Maoist leaders are busy giving the finishing
touches to political agreements reached and are narrowing their differences over
the issue of arms management and the fate of monarchy. The media reports say that
the agreements on almost 95 percent of the political issues have been reached and
have even been documented. However, no formal statements have come out from either
side yet.
Maoist Activities
Although the top Maoist leaders are busy in peace talks, the Maoist activities have
not stopped yet. The reports on the Maoist's extortion, intimidation, attacks were
a common scene during last weeks. The explosion of the stray bombs injured almost
a dozen of people in two different incidents. Media reports say that Maoists have
been occupying various government offices, schools and customs offices for their
trainings and shelter. The Ceasefire Code of Conduct National Monitoring Committee
on 22 October urged the Maoists to take immediate initiatives to implement the 25-point
code of conduct they signed with the government on May 26. The committee said it
received complaints about 1,300 cases of violation of code of conduct since the
government and Maoists signed it. Of these all, 75 percent cases were about the
Maoists' violations of the code of conduct, the committee said.
Situation ahead……..
The top political leaders of the Maoists and the seven party alliances have been
holding the talks at the informal levels. The summit peace talks are said to be
held within a few days to hammer out the peace deal. The issue regarding the formation
of a republican front for the Constituent Assembly polls has cooled down as the
Nepali congress, a major leading political party, refused to participate in it.
The international community is carefully watching the political developments in
Nepal. The US is firm on its earlier stance that the Maoists have to lay down their
arms before joining the interim government. Media reports say that the UN and the
US have been trying to accommodate the Indian concerns about the modality of arms
management in Nepal. The UN representatives had a consultation visit to New Delhi
last week. And the US ambassador to Nepal James F. Moriarty has left for New Delhi
for similar consultations on 29 October.
However, the Nepalese political leaders seem to be committed to restoring the peace
and the chances are high that the peace talks would be successful.
2. Election Theory for Constituent Assembly in Nepal
November 2, 2006
Two prognosis are presently found in Nepal – the talks will materialize following
the zest and zeal of the commoners and talks will fail ignoring the pray for sustainable
peace of people. The Government of Nepal's (GoN) continued status quo on weapons
management prior to political solution and political solution first in package raised
by the Maoists created confusion among the people. Professor Johan Galtung says,
"There is not a peace process but a cease-fire process." Galtung further stresses,
"Prior to the conclusion of political agendas, we can not even imagine of disarmament."
But, both conflicting parties GoN/SPA and the Maoists are trying their level best
to assure the people that peace-talks is at the verge of completion as all issues
have nearly bridged the gaps. The lip-service peace-talks and repeated assurance
to people by them are minimizing the hopes of people for positive peace or just
peace. On the one hand, t he Maoists are regenerating its strength tossed and turned
during the People's War, and on the other the GoN is preparing the ground for elections
appointing Commissioners to Election Commission. Moreover, the government time and
again claims CA election could be held within six months. But, the most perplexing
point is that the government has neither done exercises on election process nor
they have presently raised any concern on it.
Election or voting system was first introduced by Jean-Charles de Borda, which is
also called Borda count as an academic study during the period of French Revolution
in 1770. The French Academy of Sciences put forward the concept of voting system
for electing the members in it. Later, Marquis de Condorcet proposed pair-wise method
(Condorcet method) which he called the intransitivity of majority preferences.
Later in the 1800s, apportionment was begun to study and statespersons such as Alexander
Hamilton, Thomas Jefferson, Daniel Webster, and so forth forwarded various methods.
Some of the apportionment methods for instance party-list proportional representation
system were revealed in the US and Europe in the 1900s. The apportionment methods
are still used in the name of d'Hondt method and the Sainte-Lague method.
The election process coincides with voting system and voting system is a means of
electing a number based on the contribution of a number of voters in favors of the
candidates or parties. Voting is a part of the political and electoral process.
A voting system consists of the rules for how people (voters) express their interests/desires,
and how their interests/desires are cumulated to yield a result. Voting system is
based on the notion of majority rule [1]. The study of officially defined voting
systems is named voting theory - a subfield of politics or political science, economics
or mathematics. Three - single winner, multiple winner and mixed theories (proposals)
might be applicable in the case of Nepal.
1. Single-winner Theory
X
Ram
22,000
Shanti
14,500
Hari
9,000
Indira
11,271
X
Shyam
16,988
Box 2 : Binary voting system
x
Ram
22,000
Shanti
14,500
Hari
9,000
Indira
11,271
Shyam
16,988
Box 1 : Single-winner system
Single-winner can be classified into binary (voter either casts vote(s) or does
not for a given candidate), ranked (each voter ranks the candidates in order of
performance) and rated (voter give a score or grade from 0 to 100 to each candidate)
voting system [2]. The common uses of electoral system in single seats are First
Past the Post (FPTP), runoff voting and preferential system and plurality.
1
Ram
Shanti
3
Hari
Indira
2
Shyam
Box 3 : Ranked voting system
Single winner is a system that uses to elect member(s) of a parliament/state council
or president based on single member constituency. It is called a relatively simple
majority method, which is also known as FPTP or winner-take all voting system.
The FPTP is generally found in Brazil (Senate), Niger, Panama, Philippines (President),
Russia (Duma), South Korea, Singapore, US (House of Representatives, Senate, President
and Local government), UK (House of Commons and Local government), etc. France uses
a similar system, but carries out two rounds of elections or two ballot plurality
systems choosing two highest voted candidates. The weakest candidates eliminate
which is called elimination or runoff elections.
Table No. 1: Single-winner voting system by some major countries
Country
Body
System
Seats per District
Total seats
Bahrain
First past the post / Bloc voting
30
Bangladesh
First past the post
1
300
Brazil
President
Runoff
Kuwait
Bloc voting
50
Lebanon
Party-block voting
128
Maldives
Bloc voting
40
Thailand
Bloc voting
391
Vietnam
Runoff
...
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